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CONFIDENTIAL

While it is not possible to categorically rule out theory No. 1 it is very easy to do so on reasonable grounds. The existence of any form of life on other planets is extremely tenuous and debatable. The level of technical achievement required to launch piloted or pilotless missiles from one planet to another and return is several orders of magnitude beyond that existing on the earth today and probably would have resulted in some firm contact prior to this, either through deliberate landings or unscheduled crashes. (Even these have been reported in the press - complete with descriptions of men only 18 inches tall! Such reports are sheer fabrication.)

There is absolutely no evidence that the Soviet Union possess either guided missiles or disc shaped aircraft capable of making round trip flights to the US, and the use of atomic energy for the propulsion of any aerial vehicle is still at least several years in the future. Even if the Soviets are that far ahead of us in such a program, there is no reason to expect the airplanes would be other than of conventional design. An atomic power plant, alone, would be sufficiently radical, without also designing a completely new vehicle to carry it.

The US is not experimenting with any new weapon that could reasonably be mistaken for identified as a flying disc or saucer. The US is launching large numbers of meteorological and cosmic ray balloons for experimental purposes and a fair number of the reports can be definitely attributed to sightings of these objects or reflections of other shiny objects such as aircraft.

The continued reporting of aerial phenomena must then be attributed to a mass hysteria caused by the present tenseness in the international situation; the public belief in the ability of science to accomplish miracles; and to statements in the press by "name" individuals hinting at

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CONFIDENTIAL