Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

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These 12 sightings can be classed into four categories on the basis of
their shapes, as follows:
( l} Propeller shape - Case I
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(2) Aircraft shape - Cases II and III
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(3) Cigar shape - Cases IV and V
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(4) Elliptical or disc shape - Cases VI to XII
The criterion for choosing the above sightings was that their descrip­
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tions were given in enough detail to permit diagrams of the objects to be
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drawn. It might be noted here that in all but one of these cases (Case XI)
the observer had already drawn a diagram of what he had seen.
The objective of this section of the study was the conceiving of a
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model, or models. The requirement that the description be detailed is an
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important one, and was the easiest to determine in the re-evaluation pro­
gram. However, a good model ought to satisfy the following conditions as
well:
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( 1) The general shape of the object and the maneuvers it
performed should fit the reports of many of the UNKNOWNS
and thus explain them.
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(2) The observer and the report should be reliable.
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(3} The report should contain elements which should have
been observed with accuracy, and which eliminate the
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possibility that the sighting could be ascribed to a
familiar object or to a known natural phenomenon.
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(4} The model should be derived from two or more good
UNKNOWNS between which there is no essential conflict.
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It can be shown that it is not possible to deduce a model from the 12
cases that will satisfy all of these conditions.
The following case-by-case
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discussion of the 12 good UNKNOWNS will illustrate this point:
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( 1) Case I does not satisfy Conditions 1 and 4. The reported
shape of this object is not duplicated in any of the other
UNKNOWNS.
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•(2) Case II does not satisfy Conditions 1 and 3. There are
very few UNKNOWNS in the aircraft shape classification.
In addition, the unusual characteristic of this sighting
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(i.e., the red glow) could have been reflection of the
lights of Flint from the objects if they were either birds
or aircraft.
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