Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

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CONCLUSIONS
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It can never be absolutely proven that "flying saucers" do not exist.
This would be true if the data obtained were to include complete scientific
measurements of the attributes of each sighting, as well as complete and
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detailed descriptions of the objects sighted. It might be possible to demon­
strate the existence of "flying saucers" with data of this type, IF they were
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to exist.
Although the reports considered in this study usually did not contain
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scientific measurements of the attributes of each sighting, it was possible
to establish certain valid conclusions by the application of statistical
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methods in the treatment of the data. Scientifically evaluated and arranged,
the data as a whole did not show any marked patterns or trends. The in­
accuracies inherent in this type of data, in addition to the incompleteness of
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a large proportion of the reports, may have obscured any patterns Qr trends
that otherwise would have been evident. This absence of indicative relation­
ships necessitated an exhaustive study of selected facets of the data in order
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to draw any valid conclusions.
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A critical examination of the distributions of the important char­
acteristics of sightings, plus an intensive study of the sightings evaluated
as UNKNOWN, led to the conclusion that a combination of factors, prin­
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cipally the reported maneuvers of the objects and the unavailability of
supplemental data such as aircraft flight plans or balloon-launching records,
resulted in the failure to identify as KNOWNS most of the reports of objects
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classified as UNKNOWNS.
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An intensive study, aimed at finding a verified example of a "flying
saucer" or at deriving a verified model or models of "flying saucers" {as
defined on Page 1), led to the conclusion that neither goal could be attained
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using the pre sent data.
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It is emphasized that there was a complete lack of any valid evidence
consisting of physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial
object.
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Thus, the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS considered in this
study are "flying saucers" is concluded to be extremely small, since the
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most complete and reliable reports from the present data, when isolated
and studied, conclusively failed to reveal even a rough model, and since
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the data as a whole failed to reveal any marked patterns or trends.
Therefore, on the basis of this evaluation of the information, it is
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considered to be highly improbable that any of the reports of unidentified
aerial objects examined in this study represent observations of technologi­
cal developments outside the range of present-day scientific knowledge.
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