Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

Text

This text came with the file. It may have mistakes. When the text and the image disagree, the image is right.

I
~ I
translation and transcription from reports to punched cards, indicated that
there would be relatively few specific variables or factors that would yield
meaningful correlation studies. Either the original data were too subjec­
\L,
tive, or the incompleteness of the original reports-wo1J:_ld seriously reduce
the sample of a specific variable.
I
I
Preliminary tabulations of various sortings substantiated the im­
possibility of deriving statistical results from certain variables, such as
movement of the observer during the sighting, sound, shape parameter,
I
size, angular velocity and acceleration, appearance and disappearance
bearing, initial and final elevation, altitude, and orientation of the object.
The statistically usable variables presented in this study include the date,
I
time, location, duration, reliability, and method of observation of the
sighting, and the physical attributes of number, color, speed, shape, light
I
brightness, and identification of the objects sighted.
The presentation of frequency and percentage distributions of any of
I
the variables must be interpreted in the light of the sample of incidents
I
represented. For example, the analysis of the reported colors of the
objects sighted, based on ALL SIGHTINGS, could lead to misrepresenta­
tion of the distribution of the reported color of the objects, because of the
I
multiplicity of reports on some of the phenomena. On the other hand, the
percentage distribution of the light brightness reported by each observer
is more likely to be correct than a distribution based on one report for
each phenomenon.
To assure that the most nearly correct presentation
I
was made, and to avoid the possibility· of failure to uncover any pattern or
I
trend inherent in the data, the variables were studied on five different
bases or samples. These samples, and their numerical relation to each
other, were as follows:
I
ALL SIGHTINGS (all reports)
3,201 cards
UNIT SIGHTINGS, all observers
2, 554 cards
UNIT SIGHTINGS, single observer
2, 232 cards
I
UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers
322 cards
OBJECT SIGHTINGS
2, 199 cards
I
The preliminary tabulations indicated that the samples based on UNIT
SIGHTINGS, single observer, and UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers,
I
would not add materially to this study. Accordingly, although the fre­
I
quency distributions were recorded and are available for study, they are
not presented in this report.
'I
The bases of ALL SIGHTINGS, UNIT SIGHTINGS (referring to all
observers), and OBJECT SIGHTINGS are presented in Appendix A as
Tables Al through A240. A critical study of these tabulations reveals that
there is no apparent change in the distribution of any variable from one
I
basis to another, and that no marked patterns or trends exist in any sample.
_I
15
I