Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

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Graphical Presentation
Graphical representation of the important information contained in
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the tables is presented in Figures l through 38.
These figures present the
distributions of the important variables only by the total nu.mber of cases
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in each identification category, since no significant differences were found
between the distributions of "Certain'' and "Doubtful" identifications of
objects with respect to the variables. A chronological study of these
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figures will afford a broad picture of the tabulated information, without the
necessity of a detailed study of the tables.
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A critical examination of the figures will show that no trends, patterns,
or correlations are to be found, with the exception of Figures 18 through 30.
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The apparent similarity of the distributions shown by these mirror graphs,
Figures 18 through 23, was tested by statistical methods which showed that
there was a low probability- that the distributions of the KNOWNS, and
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UNKNOWNS by these characteristics were the same. These tests and their
interpretation are discussed in the following section. For purposes of this
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study, the strategic areas, shown in Figures 32 through 38, and Tables
A223 through A240, Appendix A, were designated on the basis of concen­
tration of reports of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in an area. No other interpre­
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tation of the tables or remaining charts was deemed necessary.
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Advanced Study of the Data
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It was recognized that the lack of any patterns or trends, as shown by
the tabulations and graphs, provided an insecure basis for drawing definite
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conclusions. Accordingly, shortly before the sorting and tabulation pro­
gram was concluded, a program of study of the data was developed to
utilize statistical and other mathematical methods, which could lead to a
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more concrete interpretation of the problem.
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Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer
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The first thing that was done was to calculate the angle of elevation of
the sun above the horizon and its bearing from true north as seen by the
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observer at the time of each sighting. With this information, it could then
be determined whether there was a possibility that the reported object
could have been illuminated by light from the sun. In addition, it could be
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determined whether an object could be a mock sun ( sun dog) or whether
there was a possibility of specular reflection from an aircraft at the posi­
tion of the object, which would give the appearance of a "flying disc".
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A program of computation was set up and carried out to obtain the
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angle of elevation and the bearing of the sun for each sighting. All informa­
tion needed for this calculation was available on the deck of IBM cards.
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