Department of the Air Force Report, 1996

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7. Potentlal Future Investigations
Because of contract limitations on funds and the deadline for publishing the report,
certain interesting facets of the Mode-5 modeling process could not be fully
investigated. Several such issues are listed below in considered order of importance:
(1) Effects. on shaping constants A and B of using more precise breakup (qa.)
conditions during malfunction-tum simulations.
(2) Effects on shaping constants A and B (and thus overall risks) if different values of
TB are used in computing theoretical and simulated impacts (e.g., TB
corresponding to burnout of zero, first, and second stages).
(3) Effects on shaping constants A and B if drag is accounted for in computing free-
fall impact points after • a malfunction tum.
(Shaping constants could be
determined for maximum, minimum, and intermediate ballistic coefficients, then
interpolated for other values. This more accurate approach would ultimately
require extensive modifications to DAMP.)
(4) Effects on shaping constants A and B if sectors smaller than 5° are used to
compare theoretical and simulated impact data (e.g., 1 ° or 2°).
(5) Effects on relative failure probabilities for solid-propellant vehicles if unclassified
solid-propellant vehicles or declassified test results are used in the historical data
samples (e.g., Pershing, Polaris, Poseidon, Trident).
Other tasks that should be performed at some point in the future include:
(a) Update absolute failure probabilities for Atlas, Delta, Titan, and perhaps other
vehicles.
(b) Develop suitable shaping constants A and B for new vehicles. (In this regard, see
Section 6.6)
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RTI