AARO Unresolved Case Analysis Update: Western United States Event

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exceeds the standard battery capacity and operational limits of typical military and
commercially available multi-rotor UAV systems.
c. Military Aircraft Dispensing Flares (Partially Plausible):
i.
Supporting Factors: Historical flight logs confirm that U.S. military aircraft
operating in the area were equipped with, and actively deployed, infrared
countermeasure flares as a component of a standard exercise. The reported
morphology and behavior of these phenomena align with known characteristics of
certain military infrared flares.  The phenomena’s position relative to the
observers, perceived direction of travel, and time of observation strongly align
with historical radar and ADS-B data, suggesting that approximately 60 percent of
the reported activity is plausibly attributable to military aircraft. The agents, who
are professionally familiar with the visual characteristics of military flares, stated
that the phenomena did not exhibit those characteristics. However, the visual and
behavioral characteristics of the specific types of flares carried by the military
aircraft operating in the area differ from those of standard illumination flares.
ii.
Contradictory Factors: For the remaining 40 percent of reported observations,
radar and ADS-B data indicate that no known aircraft were active within the
observers’ estimated line-of-sight from the ground. In at least one case, the
agents’ report of a red “orb” remaining stationary for several hours is physically
incompatible with the burn-time and descent rate of any known military flare.
d. U.S. Capability Deconfliction (Blue Force) (Plausible, inconclusive): AARO conducted
a comprehensive review of programs and activities across the Department of War and the
Intelligence Community to ascertain whether the time, date, location, and reported
features of the phenomena align with those of any U.S. developmental program, test
event, or operational capability. AARO assesses that the characteristics described in the
agents’ narrative account align with those of certain U.S. military technologies. However,
historical records are inconclusive regarding whether those technologies were present at
the time and place of the reported incident. Furthermore, while each reported
characteristic shares features with known U.S. military systems, no single Blue Force
capability fully accounts for all the phenomena’s reported characteristics.
e. Foreign Intelligence Activity (Red Force) (Highly Unlikely): AARO consulted with
partners in the Intelligence Community to assess the likelihood that the reported
phenomena indicate the presence of foreign intelligence activities.  While AARO cannot
definitively rule out the deployment of entirely novel foreign collection platforms, the
reported kinematic profiles diverge significantly enough from those of known adversary
systems that AARO assesses this hypothesis as highly unlikely.
f. Phenomenological & Environmental Factors (Unlikely): AARO consulted with subject
matter experts to explore possible natural phenomena whose characteristics may account
for those of the reported phenomena. Potential attributions included:
i.
Meteorological phenomena. Weather conditions were generally inconsistent with
those necessary to produce rare phenomena such as ball lightning or sprites.
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