AARO Unresolved Case Analysis Update: Western United States Event

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UNCLASSIFIED
ii.
Atmospheric anomalies, (e.g., temperature inversion and refractive effects).
Weather conditions were generally clear, with seasonable temperatures and
typical levels of light pollution for the area.  AARO assesses as unlikely that such
conditions would contribute to misperceptions of a phenomenon’s physical or
kinematic features.
iii.
Space-based phenomena, (e.g., stars, planets, meteors, satellite flaring, rocketry).
The agents’ diverse viewing angles make it highly unlikely that misidentified
celestial bodies account for the phenomena.  In instances in which reporters
described stationary “loitering” behavior, misidentified celestial bodies are more
plausible, though still unlikely.  Attribution to meteors or other ephemeral space-
based phenomena, including satellite flaring, is inconsistent with the reported
persistence of at least one of the red “orbs” over a period of several hours.
Bolides, for example, typically exhibit a characteristic tail, which is inconsistent
with the reported morphology of the “mother orbs.”
g. Unrecognized Technology (Pending): AARO’s preliminary exclusion-based hypothesis
is that, given the otherwise unexplained kinematic and physical characteristics described
in narrative reports, unrecognized technology may account for up to 40 percent of the
phenomena associated with this incident. However, this provisional assessment is based
solely upon narrative testimony, as well as the elimination of competing hypotheses, and
is unsubstantiated by technical data or physical evidence.
5. Next Steps.
AARO assesses that the features described by the reporting agents are sufficiently
anomalous to warrant continued investigation into the nature of the underlying incident.  AARO
intends to integrate scientific modeling capabilities from partner agencies within the Federal
Government, expertise from scientific and academic institutions, and insights from multi-
domain, multispectral data exploitation techniques to inform its assessment of this and other
reported UAP cases in the western United States region. AARO will continue to update its
analytic tradecraft to incorporate the best scientific and intelligence analysis practices to resolve
anomalies with higher confidence.
AARO will also seek opportunities to broaden its relationships with partners possessing
relevant technical and domain expertise to enhance its ability to efficiently deconflict Blue and
Red Force programs and activities, as well as to optimize data collection protocols to incorporate
more diverse sources. AARO may revise its assessment and provide updates if additional
intelligence and data sources become available.
Jon T. Kosloski
Director, AARO
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