Department of the Air Force Report, 1996

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important in the launch-area risk calculations provided an appropriate value of A is
selected.
Since a good data match within ±40° of the flight line was not found, the effect of this
on ship-hit calculations was investigated. It was discovered that the values chosen for
A and B made no significant difference, since the risks to shipping near the flight line
are totally dominated by the Mode-4 failure response (see Section-6.2.3).
Mode-5 baseline risks for Atlas and Delta were recomputed using newly derived
values for (1) shaping constants A and B, (2) the overall vehicle failure probability, and
(3) the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual failure-response modes.
Results were then compared with baseline risks computed in prior RTI studies. For
Atlas, Mode-5 launch-area risks were reduced by a factor between 3 to- 11, the exact
value depending on the assumed breakup qa. for the vehicle. For Delta, the reduction
factor was between 4 and 75, with the exact value again· depending on assumed
breakup conditions.
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